Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Tata Motors DVR: Steep discounts

If track record is anything to go by, prices of differential voting rights are likely to move up.

Tata Motors’ differential voting rights (DVR) shares are currently quoting at a steep 45.5 per cent discount to the ordinary shares of the company. In other words, at Rs 181, the ordinary shares are trading at a premium of Rs 82 a share, compared to the DVR shares. Typically, DVR shares trade at lower prices as these have limited voting rights but enjoy higher dividends vis-a-vis ordinary shares. In the case of Tata Motors’ DVR, the holders have a tenth of voting rights but enjoy an additional five per cent dividend, compared to holders of ordinary shares.

While there are no benchmarks, at what price should they trade? In the case of Tata Motors DVR, since its listing in December 2008, the discount on an average has been 34 per cent. However, in the last three years the discount has never breached the 46 per cent level, which is where its DVRs are now trading. If this historical trend holds, either Tata Motors’ share price will fall, or the DVR share price will rise from current levels to narrow the gap. It has happened in seven to eight occasions in the past, and every time the discount has touched 46 per cent, the DVR share price has recovered. Even if the gap has to reduce to its historical average of 34 per cent, the DVR share price should move up by at least Rs 21 per share from the current Rs 98.80. In terms of valuations as well, analysts believe that there is enough room for the DVRs to appreciate, and the risk-reward equation is favourable currently. “Considering the fundamentals and the current valuations, there is not much downside for the Tata Motors’ share price,” says Deven Choksey, managing director of K R Choksey.

Moreover, at the current levels the DVR is offering good dividend yield. In FY12, analysts are expecting a dividend of Rs 4.40 per share for the ordinary share; the company paid a dividend of Rs 4 per share (adjusted for stock split) for FY11. Considering the five per cent additional dividend, DVR holders should get Rs 4.5 per share, which translates into a dividend yield of almost 4.55 per cent as against the dividend yield of 2.43 per cent, in case of ordinary shares.

In terms of price to earnings, DVRs (at four times of the estimated earnings for FY13) are available at half the valuation of ordinary shares. For those considering Tata Motors as an investment, DVRs could be a good option. Even for those holding ordinary shares, switching to DVRs should prove rewarding. In both cases, it becomes risky if the discount widens beyond the 46 per cent level.

Source: Business Standard

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